We prepare mode share forecasts to understand how trips generated by a development are likely to be split between different modes of transport. This includes walking, cycling, public transport and private vehicles, providing a realistic picture of travel behaviour based on site context, accessibility, land use and transport strategy measures.
Mode share forecasts are a key component of proportionate transport assessment and help demonstrate how developments align with sustainability and planning policy objectives.
What are mode share forecasts?
Mode share forecasts estimate the proportion of trips made by each mode of transport for a given development. They consider factors such as location, access to public transport, walking and cycling infrastructure, parking provision and the characteristics of future users.
Mode share is used to inform trip generation, traffic forecasts, Travel Plans and transport strategies, and is often scrutinised by highway authorities and planning officers as part of the planning process.
Our mode share forecasts are tailored to the site and proposal and typically include:
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Forecast mode split for all trips
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Assessment of walking, cycling and public transport accessibility
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Review of local and national travel data (Census and National Travel Survey)
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Consideration of comparable sites and land uses
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Alignment with local and national transport policy
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Consideration against strategy measures and Travel Plan measures where relevant
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Review and reporting arrangements
The value of robust mode share forecasting lies in providing a realistic view of how people are likely to travel, rather than relying on aspirational or generic assumptions. By grounding forecasts in evidence and site context, we help clients demonstrate policy compliance while avoiding unrealistic expectations that can undermine credibility. Clear, defensible mode share assumptions also support proportionate traffic forecasting, more accurate assessment of network impact and constructive dialogue with planning and highway authorities.
When mode share forecasts are needed
Mode share forecasts are commonly prepared:
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To support Transport Assessments or Statements
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To consider the suitability and capacity of the existing transport network and services
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As part of Travel Plan preparation
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For sustainable transport strategies
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Ahead of pre-application discussions
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For residential, employment and mixed-use developments
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Where policy places strong emphasis on mode shift
Early clarity on mode share supports more accurate forecasting and assessment.
Our approach
We take a clear, proportionate approach to mode share forecasting:
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Review site location and accessibility
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Analyse relevant census and local data
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Consider comparable developments
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Apply professional judgement to forecast mode split
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Present assumptions clearly and transparently
Our focus is on realism, policy alignment and defensible evidence.
Who we support
We prepare mode share forecasts for:
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Residential developments
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Employment and commercial sites
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Education and healthcare facilities
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Mixed-use developments
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Strategic land and large-scale schemes
Our experience across England, Scotland and Wales ensures forecasts align with differing policy and authority expectations.
Need a clear view of movements and mode share forecasts for your development?
Get in touch and we will prepare evidence-led mode share forecasts to support your planning submission.
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