We prepare trip distribution forecasts to understand how development traffic is likely to distribute across the surrounding highway network. Our work focuses on establishing realistic traffic movements, providing a robust basis for junction assessment, and if required, mitigation design.
Trip distribution is a critical part of understanding transport impact. Clear, evidence-led forecasts help ensure that assessment focuses on the right locations and reflects how travel is likely to occur in practice.
What is a trip distribution forecast?
A trip distribution forecast identifies the likely origins and destinations of trips generated by a development and how those trips distribute across the network. This is particularly important for traffic distribution, as it determines which junctions, corridors and routes are assessed based on forecast traffic increases.
Trip distribution forecasts are commonly used to support Transport Assessments, junction capacity checks, modelling inputs and pre-application discussions, ensuring traffic is assigned realistically based on evidence.
Our trip distribution forecasts are tailored to the site:
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Site location and accessibility review
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Traffic distribution across the local and wider highway network
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Use of Office for National Statistics Census Journey to Work data
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Analysis of population data at Output Area or similar geographic levels
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Use of origin and destination postcode data where available
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Distribution based on staff, pupil or patient catchments where relevant
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Origin destination (ANPR) survey data where appropriate
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Simple proportional traffic distribution based on observed flows and turning movements
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Clear summary tables and traffic flow diagrams illustrating distribution assumptions
The value of robust trip distribution forecasting lies in ensuring that traffic impact is assessed where it actually matters. By grounding distribution in recognised datasets and site-specific evidence, we help clients avoid assessments that either overstate impact in the wrong places or miss genuine pressure points. This leads to more proportionate assessment, better targeted mitigation and clearer dialogue with highway authorities. Early clarity on distribution also reduces the risk of challenge, rework or late changes to the scope of assessment or modelling.
When trip distribution forecasts are needed
Trip distribution forecasts are commonly prepared:
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To support Transport Assessments or Statements
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Ahead of junction capacity checks or modelling
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For developments affecting multiple junctions or corridors
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During pre-application discussions
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For employment, education and healthcare sites
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As part of strategic land or Local Plan evidence
They are particularly important where traffic impact is sensitive or wide-ranging.
Our approach
We take a clear, proportionate approach to trip distribution forecasting:
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Understand the development type and travel characteristics
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Identify appropriate datasets and evidence sources
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Apply Census, postcode or survey data where available
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Use proportionate assumptions where justified
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Present distribution clearly with explanation of implications
Our focus is on realism, transparency and alignment with authority expectations.
Who we support
We prepare trip distribution forecasts for:
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Residential and mixed-use developments
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Commercial and employment sites
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Education and healthcare facilities
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Retail and leisure uses
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Strategic and phased developments
Our experience across England, Scotland and Wales ensures distribution approaches align with local highway authority expectations.
Need clear evidence of how development traffic will distribute?
Get in touch and we will prepare robust, proportionate trip distribution forecasts to support your proposals.
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